OPERATIONS / STATEWIDE ALERTS
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RESEARCH PROTOTYPE
SIH26192 · REBUILT ON REAL DATA

Assam Basin Flood Outlook

Nine river reaches · Brahmaputra & Barak basins · 24–48 h probabilistic lead

FORECAST VALID FOR—
MAYJULOCT

Catchment risk map

Assam district boundaries · 9 gauging reaches
◉ Circle size scales with risk · click a station for detail

Risk ranking

calibrated probability × 100

Alert dispatch log

hindcast validation · last 14 days
0

Monsoon season timeline

mean risk across 9 reaches · bars = actual exceedances · click to jump
risk events

Monitored catchments

select a card to open station intelligence →
STATEWIDE SENSOR-TO-SIREN · TEST DRILL

Poore Assam ka direct-warning grid

Sivasagar (19 July 2026) ko calibration event banaya gaya hai, par drill kisi bhi upstream zone — Naga Hills, Arunachal, Bhutan foothills, Meghalaya ya Barak headwaters — se chalaya ja sakta hai. Har downstream district ko ek CAP alert aur multi-channel direct-warning plan milta hai.

⚠ SIMULATION / TEST DRILL — koi physical sensor, CWC telemetry feed, SMS gateway, siren ya push service connected nahi hai. CAP message status=Test hai aur kuch bhi dispatch nahi hua.

Drill console

surge kahan se aayegi? · kaunsa sensor tutega?
READY
06:00

Trigger & fan-out timeline

15-min reconstructed telemetry · T+ minutes from 06:00 IST

CAP 1.2 message (direct warning payload)

Test status · operator ACK required · NOT DISPATCHED

          


          

            
Direct-warning channels
send ≠ delivered ≠ acknowledged

            

            

          


          

            
Delivery / ACK ledger
1,000 synthetic recipients per district · no real numbers

            

            

          


          

            
Hardware-ready ingest API
ESP32 / LoRa / GSM node yahi JSON post karega

            

            

            

          

        


        

          

            
Assam-wide fan-out map
33 districts · 5 upstream sentinels · colour = drill severity

            

              
            

            
◉ Upstream sentinel → downstream district · click/hover for statusSIMULATED DRILL

          

          

            
Why a state-wide grid?
Sivasagar ka trigger Assam ke andar nahi tha

            

          

        

      


      

        
19 Jul 2026 · Sivasagar replay
reconstructed hydrograph, NOT official 15-minute CWC telemetry
06:00

        
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Sensor → siren architecture
edge autonomy, fail-safe degradation, operator acknowledgement

        

      


      

        
Hardware & packet contract
design references, not a deployed bill of materials

        

      


      

        
Sources & honest caveats
real facts vs synthetic drill

        

      

    


    
    

      

        
MODEL LAB · REPRODUCIBLE EVALUATION

        
Does machine learning actually help?

        
Every number below is computed on 2025–2026 monsoon days the model never saw during training, threshold tuning or calibration.

      

      

      

        
Benchmark against simple rules
same test set, same label, same threshold policy

        

      

      

        
ROC curve

        
Precision–Recall

        
Calibration

        
Confusion matrix
confusion matrix

      

      

        
Accuracy vs latency — the real trade-off
why a great AUC is useless if the input data is 2–5 days old

        

        

      

      

        
What drives a prediction?
permutation importance: drop in test ROC-AUC when one feature is shuffled

        

      

      

        
Real event window
rainfall, risk score and observed exceedances
event timeline

        
Risk by station × month
risk heatmap

      

      

        
System architecture
from public data to a served prediction

        

      

      

        
Model card & honest limitations
what this system can and cannot do

        

      

    


    
    

      

        
PORTFOLIO CASE STUDY

        
From a static demo to a
reproducible ML system

        

        

      

      

    


    
    

      
DATA & DOCUMENTATION
Reproducibility, provenance & limits
Everything needed to rerun the pipeline, inspect the data and explain the project in an interview.

      
Data provenance
free, keyless, openly licensed sources

      
Gauging reaches & flood thresholds
Q90 of 2016–2022 monsoon discharge — computed on training years only

      
Latency budget & the Nepal lesson
why "LIVE" was renamed to NOWCAST

      
Run it yourself

      
Repository map

    


    
  
















      Offline snapshot · 14 real dates + NOWCAST + statewide sensor drill ·
      full replay in the Live Preview (port 8000)